thru.capital

Real-time market intelligence.
System: Active
Latency: < 1.2ms | ClickHouse Core v26
// Archive Partition: 2026-07-02

Passive Absorption in Absorption (BTC) — July 02, 2026

A quantitative overview of cross-venue structural stability, liquidity trajectories, and intraday regime transitions.

1. Regime & Volatility Analysis

The market maintained a dominant Absorption regime, accounting for 65788 state blocks, indicating structural stability. Despite this, 8726 state blocks were classified as Indeterminate, suggesting localized noise. Volatility, as measured by [CME_BTC_VOL], was recorded at 45.2. Failed Expansion events (23 instances, confidence 17.2) on venues such as [Deribit BTC-PERPETUAL] indicated rejected attempts to transition out of the current structural stability.\n\nVerified Execution & Macro Proofs:\n- (See Verified Execution below) ## Verified Execution & Macro Proofs • 45.20 bps (Source Date: 2026-06-24)

Regime Waterfall Map: 2026-07-02

It visualizes the structural behavior of Bitcoin across the industry's most important trading venues.

1. The Axis
  • Venues (Y): Specific markets from Spot to Perps.
  • Time (X): 24-hour day broken into 48 discrete 30-minute segments.
2. Visual Grammar
  • Teal Blocks: Absorption. Passive liquidity absorbing aggressive flow.
  • Brightness: Bright = High Conviction. Faint = Transitional/Noisy.
  • White Lines: Abrupt Structural Transitions.
  • Grey Line (Hurst): Price persistence (High = trend, Low = noise).
thru.capital regime waterfall — BTC Cross-Venue Structural States — 2026-07-02 thru.capital cross-venue structural regime visualization for 2026-07-02. Maps market states (expansion, compression, absorption, exhaustion) across major BTC venues using deterministic 30-minute buckets. regime waterfall // 2026-07-02 (utc) BINANCE_BTC_SPOT BINANCE_BTC_USDM BYBIT_BTC_SPOT BYBIT_BTC_LINEAR HYPERLIQUID_BTC_PERP COINBASE_BTC_SPOT OKX_BTC_PERP BINANCE_BTC_USDC_SPOT DERIBIT_BTC_PERP 00 06 12 18 24 canonical day archive // utc normalized // 30m buckets thru.capital

2. Liquidation Risks & Funding Trajectories

Funding trajectories exhibited significant divergences across venues. [Bybit BTCPERP] recorded a funding divergence of -1.36 Z, [BinanceCoinM BTCUSD_PERP] showed -1.13 Z, and [Deribit BTC_USDC-PERPETUAL] exhibited -1.42 Z. Leverage state remained Clean across all observed instruments, indicating no immediate cascade risk. However, these negative funding divergences created a vulnerability for potential short squeezes if the absorption continued. Open Interest (OI) velocity diverged, with [Binance BTCUSDC] at -17.25 BPS and [Hyperliquid BTC] at +8.63 BPS.\n\nVerified Execution & Macro Proofs:\n- (See Verified Execution below)\n- (See Verified Execution below) ## Verified Execution & Macro Proofs • 420,000,000 USDT (220,000,000 USDT on Ethereum, 100,000,000 USDT on Ethereum, 100,000,000 USDT on Ethereum) • baseline risk-free levels

Squeeze Radar Map: 2026-07-02

This chart is the Squeeze Radar, a specialized risk map for Bitcoin derivative markets. It visualizes the "tension" in the market by tracking where the most dangerous liquidation risks are building up across major exchanges.

1. The "Risk Map" (The Four Quadrants)

The chart is divided into four sections based on two critical factors: Position Crowdedness (Vertical Axis) and Holding Cost (Horizontal Axis).

  • The Red Zone (Top-Right - "Long Squeeze Danger"): This is the danger zone. Positions here have rising Open Interest (more people piling in) and high Funding Rates (buyers are paying a premium to stay long). If the price drops slightly, these "crowded longs" may be forced to sell all at once, causing a crash.
  • The Green Zone (Bottom-Left - "Short Covering Exhaustion"): This is the "relief" zone. Positions here have falling Open Interest (shorts are closing) and negative Funding (sellers are paying buyers). This usually signals that a downward move is running out of steam.
2. The Movements (Nodes and Trails)
  • The Circles (Nodes): The solid circles represent where those exchanges ended the day.
  • The Size of the Circle: The larger the circle, the more trading volume that exchange handled.
  • The Dashed Trails (Trajectories): These "scribbles" are the most important part—they show the path each exchange took over the last 24 hours. Instead of just a single data point, you can see the "journey" of the market sentiment.
thru.capital squeeze radar — OI Velocity vs Funding Z-Score — 2026-07-02 thru.capital market crowdedness and positioning radar for 2026-07-02. Maps Open Interest (OI) Velocity in basis points against Funding Rate Z-Scores (sigma). squeeze radar // 2026-07-02 (utc) BINANCE BYBIT HYPERLIQUID OKX DERIBIT +50 BPS (OI VEL) -50 BPS (OI VEL) +3.0σ (FUNDING) -3.0σ LONG SQUEEZE DANGER SHORT COVERING EXHAUSTION node size scale: 24h volume (log) // utc normalized thru.capital

3. Passive Liquidity & CVD Divergences

Passive absorption was the dominant structural event, with 264 instances detected at a confidence of 205.8. This indicates sustained institutional buying into supply across multiple venues. Bids absorbed aggressive selling pressure, particularly on [Deribit] and [BinanceCoinM], consistent with the overall Absorption regime. A failed expansion on [Deribit BTC-PERPETUAL] suggests a rejected breakout attempt.\n\n| Venue/Instrument | Event Type | Time (UTC) | Confidence | Key Metric |\n|---|---|---|---|---|\n| OkxInverse BTC-USD | Passive Absorption | Intraday | 0.8000 | efficiency_ratio: 0.1357, vpin: 0.8298 |\n| Hyperliquid BTC | Passive Absorption | Intraday | 0.8000 | efficiency_ratio: 0.0782, vpin: 0.7154 |\n| Deribit BTC-10JUL26 | Passive Absorption | Intraday | 0.8000 | efficiency_ratio: 0.00, vpin: 1.00 |\n| BinanceCoinM BTCUSD_PERP | Passive Absorption | Intraday | 0.8000 | efficiency_ratio: 0.0079, vpin: 1.00 |\n| Deribit BTC-PERPETUAL | Failed Expansion | Intraday | 0.6000 | exit_regime: Indeterminate | Extract the raw multi-venue Parquet tick data for this epoch via thrunode_archive

Global CVD Divergence & Liquidity Radar Map: 2026-07-02

This chart visualizes the true macroeconomic divergence between Global Spot and Derivative markets. By aggregating liquidity across all canonical exchanges, it acts as a highly sensitive gauge for systemic buying or selling pressure.

1. Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) Lines

CVD tracks aggressive market orders (market buys minus market sells). We aggregate this across all canonical exchanges into two distinct curves:

  • Spot CVD (The "Real" Demand): Tracks actual asset accumulation. When this rises, actual assets are being bought and removed from order books.
  • Perp CVD (The Speculative Demand): Tracks derivative traders using leverage. Divergences (e.g., Perp CVD rising while Spot CVD drops) often signal fragile, easily-liquidated trends.
2. Passive Liquidity Walls & Macro Events
  • Order Book Imbalance (Background): The background heatmap shows the structural weight of passive limit orders. Brighter colors indicate passive liquidity walls stepping in to absorb aggressive volume.
  • Macro Events (Vertical Lines): We filter billions of daily ticks to cluster systemic structural events—like Global Liquidation Cascades or massive Block Trades—across multiple exchanges simultaneously.
thru.capital cvd divergence & liquidity radar — 2026-07-02 thru.capital dual-layer market microstructure visualization for 2026-07-02. Tracks cumulative volume delta (cvd) alongside orderbook imbalance. cvd divergence & liquidity radar // 2026-07-02 (utc) 00 06 12 18 24 FAILED EXPANSION FAILED EXPANSION FAILED EXPANSION FAILED EXPANSION FAILED EXPANSION FAILED EXPANSION FAILED EXPANSION FAILED EXPANSION FAILED EXPANSION SPOT CVD PERP CVD ABSORPTION COMPRESSION BID DEPTH ASK DEPTH 0.0 BUY SIDE SELL SIDE canonical day archive // utc normalized // 5m buckets thru.capital

Raw Chronological Logs

// Chronological Interpreter Log

2026-07-02 22:48 UTC Absorption Tier 0
  1. Executive Summary
  • Dominant Absorption regime with 93% venue consensus.
  • [Deribit BTC_USDC-PERPETUAL] shows a significant funding divergence at -1.42 Z.
  • Momentum exhaustion alongside absorption suggests potential fuel depletion.
  1. Active Shift Ledger (Last 30 Minutes)
  • New Signals: None
  • Cleared Faults: None
  • Premium Drift: Stable (1.42 Z)
  1. Active Structural Events
    Venue/Instrument Event Type Recency Confidence Key Metric
    [Deribit BTC-10JUL26] Passive Absorption 2 minutes ago 0.8000 efficiency_ratio: 0.00, vpin: 1.00
    [BinanceCoinM BTCUSD_PERP] Passive Absorption 2 minutes ago 0.8000 efficiency_ratio: 0.0079, vpin: 1.00

These recent passive absorption events on [Deribit] and [BinanceCoinM] indicate active institutional buying against selling pressure, consistent with the overall Absorption regime.

  1. Core Analysis [Deribit BTC_USDC-PERPETUAL] records the highest funding divergence at -1.42 Z, indicating a significant short bias on this specific perpetual contract compared to the broader market. This creates a vulnerability for potential short squeezes if the absorption continues. The market is predominantly in an Absorption regime, with 93% venue consensus. However, [OkxSpot BTC-USDT], [Deribit BTC-PERPETUAL], [Hyperliquid BTC], [OkxInverse BTC-USD], [BinanceSpot BTCUSDT], [OkxSpot BTC-USDC], [OkxLinear BTC-USDT], and [Bybit BTCPERP] are classified as Indeterminate, suggesting localized noise or conflicting efficiency and velocity metrics. [Hyperliquid BTC] also shows the largest OI velocity at -3.48 BPS, indicating significant open interest reduction. Overall leverage state remains Clean across all observed venues, reducing immediate cascade risk.

  2. Historical Analog Context No historical analogs available.

2026-07-02 00:47 UTC Absorption Tier 0
  1. Executive Summary
  • Dominant Absorption regime with 93% venue consensus.
  • A divergence is observed with [BinanceCoinM BTCUSD_PERP] funding at -1.13 Z, contrasting broad Absorption.
  • The primary risk is a failed expansion on [Deribit BTC-PERPETUAL], suggesting a rejected breakout attempt.
  1. Active Shift Ledger (Last 30 Minutes)
  • New Signals: None
  • Cleared Faults: None
  • Premium Drift: Stable (1.13 Z)
  1. Active Structural Events
Venue/Instrument Event Type Recency Confidence Key Metric
Deribit BTC-PERPETUAL Failed Expansion 7 minutes ago 0.6000 exit_regime: Indeterminate
Deribit BTC-28AUG26 Passive Absorption 7 minutes ago 0.8000 efficiency_ratio: 0.00

Aggregate implications: The [Deribit BTC-PERPETUAL] failed expansion, occurring 7 minutes ago with 0.6000 confidence, suggests a rejected price movement. Concurrently, [Deribit BTC-28AUG26] shows passive absorption with 0.8000 confidence, indicating sustained buying at current levels.

  1. Core Analysis The most severe divergence is observed on [BinanceCoinM BTCUSD_PERP], with funding at -1.13 Z, indicating significant short-side pressure. This contrasts with the dominant Absorption regime across 93% of venues, including [BybitSpot BTCUSDT] and [OkxSpot BTC-USDT]. The [Deribit BTC-PERPETUAL] recorded a Failed Expansion 7 minutes ago, transitioning to an Indeterminate state with +12.77 BPS OI velocity, suggesting a rejected breakout attempt and creating vulnerability for directional moves. Leverage state remains Clean across all observed instruments, including [BybitInverse BTCUSD] with -2.87 BPS OI velocity and [OkxInverse BTC-USD] with -10.15 BPS OI velocity, indicating no immediate cascade risk despite the funding and OI shifts.

  2. Historical Analog Context No historical analogs available.

2026-07-02 00:17 UTC Absorption Tier 0
  1. Executive Summary
  • Dominant Absorption regime with 98% venue consensus.
  • Significant funding divergence recorded on [Bybit BTCPERP] at -1.36 Z.
  • Passive absorption across venues suggests institutional accumulation, despite a failed expansion attempt on [Deribit BTC-PERPETUAL].
  1. Active Shift Ledger (Last 30 Minutes)
  • New Signals: None
  • Cleared Faults: None
  • Premium Drift: Stable (1.36 Z)
  1. Active Structural Events
    Venue/Instrument Event Type Recency Confidence Key Metric
    OkxInverse BTC-USD Passive Absorption 32s 0.8000 efficiency_ratio: 0.1357, vpin: 0.8298
    Hyperliquid BTC Passive Absorption 33s 0.8000 efficiency_ratio: 0.0782, vpin: 0.7154

Passive absorption is detected across 15 venues, indicating sustained buying into supply. No liquidation cascades were detected. A failed expansion on [Deribit BTC-PERPETUAL] suggests a breakout attempt was rejected.

  1. Core Analysis [Bybit BTCPERP] recorded the highest funding divergence at -1.36 Z, indicating localized bearish sentiment despite the broader Absorption regime. The market maintains a dominant Absorption regime with 98% venue consensus, suggesting passive institutional accumulation. Leverage state across all observed venues remains Clean. [Binance BTCUSDC] shows the largest OI velocity at -17.25 BPS, while [Hyperliquid BTC] recorded a positive OI velocity of +8.63 BPS, indicating divergent OI trends. A failed expansion on [Deribit BTC-PERPETUAL] suggests a rejection of upward price movement.

  2. Historical Analog Context No historical analogs were identified in the Kernel State, limiting contextualization to current market dynamics.