{
  "title": "Passive Absorption (BTC) — July 26, 2026",
  "waterfall_summary": "The dominant regime is [Absorption](https://thru.capital/ontology#absorption-the-wall) (90334 blocks), indicating persistent structural stability. Multiple [Failed Expansion](https://thru.capital/ontology#failed-expansion) events (32 total, confidence 22.4) across **[Deribit BTC-PERPETUAL]** and **[OkxLinear BTC-USDT]** confirm rejected breakout attempts, while [Momentum Exhaustion](https://thru.capital/ontology#momentum-exhaustion) (24 events, confidence 18.0) on **[Bybit BTCPERP]** suggests fuel depletion. The market's structural stability is further evidenced by widespread [passive absorption](https://thru.capital/ontology#passive-absorption), despite localized [Indeterminate](https://thru.capital/ontology#indeterminate-ambiguous) states on several Spot and Perpetual venues. | Venue/Instrument | Event Type | Time (UTC) | Confidence | Key Metric | |:---|:---|:---|:---|:---| | **[Deribit Options [226]]** | Passive Absorption | Intraday | 0.8000 | efficiency_ratio: 0.00, vpin: 1.00 | | **[Bybit BTCPERP]** | Momentum [Exhaustion](https://thru.capital/ontology#exhaustion-the-fade) | Intraday | 0.7500 | oi_velocity: -31.05 BPS, cvd_divergence: 0.9621 | | **[Deribit BTC-PERPETUAL]** | Failed [Expansion](https://thru.capital/ontology#expansion-discovery) | Intraday | 0.8000 | duration_bars: 1.00, exit_regime: Absorption | | **[Hyperliquid BTC]** | Passive Absorption | Intraday | 0.8000 | efficiency_ratio: 0.1346, [vpin](https://thru.capital/ontology#vpin): 0.9663 | The aggregate L2 structural events confirm a market characterized by persistent passive absorption, with institutional bids effectively containing reactive selling pressure. Failed expansion attempts and momentum exhaustion indicate a lack of sustained directional conviction beyond the current absorption range. Verified Execution & Macro Proofs: * **(See Verified Execution below)**\n\n## Verified Execution & Macro Proofs\n\n• [45.20 bps (Source Date: 2026-06-24)](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/cryptocurrencies/bitcoin/bitcoin.html)\n\n*[Extract the raw multi-venue Parquet tick data for this epoch via thrunode_archive](https://thru.capital/allocate)*",
  "radar_summary": "Funding rates on **[BybitInverse BTCUSD]** (+3.17 Z) and **[BinanceCoinM BTCUSD_PERP]** (+2.36 Z) indicated elevated long crowdedness, creating localized short squeeze risks. This was juxtaposed against declining [OI velocity](https://thru.capital/ontology#derivatives-reflexivity) on **[Bybit BTCUSDT]** (-16.61 BPS) and **[Deribit BTC_USDC-PERPETUAL]** (-10000.0 BPS), suggesting fragmented conviction and potential for rapid unwinds. Significant **[Ethereum]** **[USDT]** treasury inflows totaling $420,000,000 were recorded, indicating fresh capital deployment. Verified Execution & Macro Proofs: * **(See Verified Execution below)** * **(See Verified Execution below)**\n\n## Verified Execution & Macro Proofs\n\n• 420,000,000 USDT ([220,000,000 USDT on Ethereum](https://etherscan.io/tx/0x6f257356f4d8bc030c6200318b84373e9c9e24065971cf6d9e0865480616f925), [100,000,000 USDT on Ethereum](https://etherscan.io/tx/0x00440492fef809c4e36e7f972d5ce15ab7760d322d53341fa9b3953d2ec96fbf), [100,000,000 USDT on Ethereum](https://etherscan.io/tx/0x0c66d50a3ac9e7e40eda0b5149bdc2271fe51552560364e860a6d4ddf22cfa3d))\n• baseline risk-free levels",
  "cvd_summary": "Widespread passive liquidity walls were observed, with **[Deribit]** instruments and **[BybitInverse BTCUSD]** exhibiting persistent [absorption](https://thru.capital/ontology#absorption-the-wall) of aggressive selling flow. Orderbook imbalances were evident as these passive bids maintained price stability, preventing significant downside movements. [CVD](https://thru.capital/ontology#cvd) divergences were noted on **[Bybit BTCPERP]** (0.9621) and **[Deribit BTC_USDC-PERPETUAL]** (1.00), indicating a depletion of reactive momentum against the sustained absorption.",
  "date": "2026-07-26",
  "historical_clusters": [
    {
      "distance_score": 0,
      "timestamp_ns": 1785110219166958600,
      "date_str": "2026-07-26",
      "url": "https://thru.capital/microstructure/btc/2026-07-26",
      "regime": 0,
      "leverage_tier": 0,
      "efficiency_ratio": 0.70163856,
      "oi_velocity": 0
    },
    {
      "distance_score": 0.018671035766601562,
      "timestamp_ns": 1783852895783169500,
      "date_str": "2026-07-12",
      "url": "https://thru.capital/microstructure/btc/2026-07-12",
      "regime": 0,
      "leverage_tier": 0,
      "efficiency_ratio": 0.68598398,
      "oi_velocity": 0
    },
    {
      "distance_score": 0.021165847778320312,
      "timestamp_ns": 1783323090154719200,
      "date_str": "2026-07-06",
      "url": "https://thru.capital/microstructure/btc/2026-07-06",
      "regime": 0,
      "leverage_tier": 0,
      "efficiency_ratio": 0.71778304,
      "oi_velocity": 0
    }
  ]
}