{
  "title": "Passive Absorption in Compression (BTC) — July 20, 2026",
  "waterfall_summary": "| Venue/Instrument | Event Type | Time (UTC) | Confidence | Key Metric |\n|---|---|---|---|---|\n| **[Deribit BTC-PERPETUAL]** | [Failed Expansion](https://thru.capital/ontology#failed-expansion) | 47s ago | 0.6000 | duration_bars: 1.00, exit_regime: [Indeterminate](https://thru.capital/ontology#indeterminate-ambiguous) |\n| **[Deribit BTC_USDC-31JUL26]** | [Passive Absorption](https://thru.capital/ontology#passive-absorption) | 1 minutes ago | 0.8000 | efficiency_ratio: 0.00 |\n| **[OkxLinear BTC-USDT]** | [Liquidation Cascade](https://thru.capital/ontology#liquidation-cascade) | 2 minutes ago | 0.7000 | oi_velocity: -33.89 |\n| **[Deribit BTC-31JUL26]** | Passive [Absorption](https://thru.capital/ontology#absorption-the-wall) | 3 minutes ago | 0.8000 | efficiency_ratio: 0.0333 |\n| **[Deribit BTC-PERPETUAL]** | Failed [Expansion](https://thru.capital/ontology#expansion-discovery) | 10 minutes ago | 0.6000 | Exit Regime: Indeterminate |\n| **[Hyperliquid BTC]** | Liquidation Cascade | 15 minutes ago | 0.7000 | [OI Velocity](https://thru.capital/ontology#derivatives-reflexivity): -50.02 BPS |\n| **[OkxInverse BTC-USD]** | Passive Absorption | 19 minutes ago | 0.8000 | efficiency_ratio: 0.0544, [vpin](https://thru.capital/ontology#vpin): 0.7626 |\n| **[Bybit BTCPERP]** | [Momentum Exhaustion](https://thru.capital/ontology#momentum-exhaustion) | 20 minutes ago | 0.7500 | efficiency_ratio: 0.0450, oi_velocity: -18.54, cvd_divergence: 0.9780 |\n| **[Bybit BTCPERP]** | Momentum [Exhaustion](https://thru.capital/ontology#exhaustion-the-fade) | 21 minutes ago | 0.7500 | oi_velocity: -16.21 |\n| **[OkxInverse BTC-USD]** | Liquidation Cascade | 24 minutes ago | 0.7000 | oi_velocity: -28.41 |\nThe market predominantly operated within an Absorption regime, with venue consensus ranging from 86% to 98%, indicating structural stability against sell-side pressure. Despite this, multiple failed expansion events were observed on venues like **[OkxLinear BTC-USDT]** and **[Deribit BTC-PERPETUAL]**, signaling rejected breakout attempts and a lack of sustained upward price discovery. Volatility, as indicated by **[CME_BTC_VOL]** at 45.2, remained a factor, while significant **[USDT]** treasury inflows totaling 420M were recorded.\nVerified Execution & Macro Proofs\n* **(See Verified Execution below)**\n* **(See Verified Execution below)**\n\n## Verified Execution & Macro Proofs\n\n• 420,000,000 USDT ([220,000,000 USDT on Ethereum](https://etherscan.io/tx/0x6f257356f4d8bc030c6200318b84373e9c9e24065971cf6d9e0865480616f925), [100,000,000 USDT on Ethereum](https://etherscan.io/tx/0x00440492fef809c4e36e7f972d5ce15ab7760d322d53341fa9b3953d2ec96fbf), [100,000,000 USDT on Ethereum](https://etherscan.io/tx/0x0c66d50a3ac9e7e40eda0b5149bdc2271fe51552560364e860a6d4ddf22cfa3d))\n• [45.20 bps (Source Date: 2026-06-24)](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/cryptocurrencies/bitcoin/bitcoin.html)\n\n*[Extract the raw multi-venue Parquet tick data for this epoch via thrunode_archive](https://thru.capital/allocate)*",
  "radar_summary": "Funding rates on **[BinanceCoinM BTCUSD_PERP]** exhibited significant elevation, reaching Z-scores of +2.36 to +2.79 throughout the day, indicating a crowded long bias despite prevailing absorption. This elevated funding, coupled with multiple [liquidation cascades](https://thru.capital/ontology#liquidation-cascade) across **[OkxInverse BTC-USD]**, **[BybitInverse BTCUSD]**, **[Deribit BTC-PERPETUAL]**, **[BinanceCoinM BTCUSD_PERP]**, **[Bybit BTCPERP]**, and **[Hyperliquid BTC]** (e.g., -50.02 BPS OI velocity on **[Hyperliquid BTC]**), created persistent [long squeeze](https://thru.capital/ontology#derivatives-reflexivity) risks. While overall leverage was predominantly [clean](https://thru.capital/ontology#clean-leverage), these localized divergences suggest pockets of aggressive positioning vulnerable to deleveraging.\nVerified Execution & Macro Proofs\n* **(See Verified Execution below)**\n\n## Verified Execution & Macro Proofs\n\n• baseline risk-free levels\n\n*[Extract the raw multi-venue Parquet tick data for this epoch via thrunode_archive](https://thru.capital/allocate)*",
  "cvd_summary": "[Passive absorption](https://thru.capital/ontology#passive-absorption) was the dominant microstructure event, observed across multiple venues including **[Deribit]** futures and options, indicating significant institutional buying against reactive sell-side pressure. This absorption created robust passive liquidity walls, effectively absorbing aggressive selling flow. A CVD divergence of 0.9780 was noted on **[Bybit BTCPERP]** during a [momentum exhaustion](https://thru.capital/ontology#momentum-exhaustion) event, signaling a potential shift in order flow dynamics.\n\n*[Extract the raw multi-venue Parquet tick data for this epoch via thrunode_archive](https://thru.capital/allocate)*",
  "date": "2026-07-20",
  "historical_clusters": [
    {
      "distance_score": 0,
      "timestamp_ns": 1784591805040297500,
      "date_str": "2026-07-20",
      "url": "https://thru.capital/microstructure/btc/2026-07-20",
      "regime": 0,
      "leverage_tier": 0,
      "efficiency_ratio": 0.4339718,
      "oi_velocity": 0
    },
    {
      "distance_score": 0.17031478881835938,
      "timestamp_ns": 1782863401954876000,
      "date_str": "2026-06-30",
      "url": "https://thru.capital/microstructure/btc/2026-06-30",
      "regime": 0,
      "leverage_tier": 0,
      "efficiency_ratio": 0.43475122,
      "oi_velocity": 0
    },
    {
      "distance_score": 0.17701339721679688,
      "timestamp_ns": 1782165002243164000,
      "date_str": "2026-06-22",
      "url": "https://thru.capital/microstructure/btc/2026-06-22",
      "regime": 0,
      "leverage_tier": 0,
      "efficiency_ratio": 0.42842262,
      "oi_velocity": 0
    }
  ]
}