{
  "title": "Passive Absorption in Absorption (BTC) — July 18, 2026",
  "waterfall_summary": "The market is characterized by a dominant [Absorption](https://thru.capital/ontology#absorption-the-wall) regime, accounting for 83267 state blocks across all instruments. **[CME_BTC_VOL]** registered 45.2 as of 2026-06-24, indicating moderate institutional volatility. Despite the pervasive absorption, 37 instances of Failed Expansion with 24.4 confidence were detected, notably on **[Hyperliquid BTC]**, **[Deribit BTC-PERPETUAL]**, and **[BinanceCoinM BTCUSD_PERP]**, indicating rejected breakout attempts and a lack of sustained directional momentum.| Venue/Instrument | Event Type | Time (UTC) | Confidence | Key Metric ||:-----------------|:-----------|:-----------|:-----------|:-----------|| **[Deribit BTC-PERPETUAL]** | Failed Expansion | 1 min ago | 0.60 | duration_bars: 1.00 || **[OkxSpot BTC-USDC]** | [Passive Absorption](https://thru.capital/ontology#passive-absorption) | 1 min ago | 0.80 | efficiency_ratio: 0.00 || **[OkxInverse BTC-USD]** | [Failed Expansion](https://thru.capital/ontology#failed-expansion) | 2 min ago | 0.60 | duration_bars: 1.00 || **[Binance BTCUSDC]** | Passive Absorption | 2 min ago | 0.60 | efficiency_ratio: 0.0880 || **[Deribit BTC-24JUL26]** | Passive Absorption | 2 min ago | 0.80 | efficiency_ratio: 0.00 || **[BinanceCoinM BTCUSD_PERP]** | Failed [Expansion](https://thru.capital/ontology#expansion-discovery) | 3 min ago | 0.60 | duration_bars: 1.00 || **[Deribit BTC-28AUG26]** | Passive Absorption | 3 min ago | 0.80 | efficiency_ratio: 0.00 || **[Hyperliquid BTC]** | Failed Expansion | 10 min ago | 0.80 | duration_bars: 1.00 |The market exhibits a dominant Absorption regime, with passive bids consistently absorbing selling pressure across venues like **[OkxSpot BTC-USDC]** and **[Deribit BTC-24JUL26]**. However, repeated Failed Expansion events on **[Deribit BTC-PERPETUAL]**, **[OkxInverse BTC-USD]**, and **[BinanceCoinM BTCUSD_PERP]** indicate strong resistance and rejected breakout attempts, preventing sustained upward momentum.Verified Execution & Macro Proofs:- **(See Verified Execution below)**\n\n## Verified Execution & Macro Proofs\n\n• [45.20 bps (Source Date: 2026-06-24)](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/cryptocurrencies/bitcoin/bitcoin.html)\n\n*[Extract the raw multi-venue Parquet tick data for this epoch via thrunode_archive](https://thru.capital/allocate)*",
  "radar_summary": "**[Bybit BTCPERP]** exhibited [extreme leverage](https://thru.capital/ontology#extreme-leverage) with funding Z-scores of +3.85 and +3.03, indicating aggressive long positioning. **[Deribit BTC_USDC-PERPETUAL]** also showed elevated funding (+2.78 Z, +2.65 Z, +2.53 Z), suggesting crowded long positions in specific perpetual instruments. This concentrated long exposure on these venues creates a vulnerability for rapid unwinds or localized flushes if the underlying absorption fails to support price, potentially leading to [long squeeze](https://thru.capital/ontology#derivatives-reflexivity) risks.Verified Execution & Macro Proofs:- **(See Verified Execution below)**\n\n## Verified Execution & Macro Proofs\n\n• 420,000,000 USDT ([220,000,000 USDT on Ethereum](https://etherscan.io/tx/0x6f257356f4d8bc030c6200318b84373e9c9e24065971cf6d9e0865480616f925), [100,000,000 USDT on Ethereum](https://etherscan.io/tx/0x00440492fef809c4e36e7f972d5ce15ab7760d322d53341fa9b3953d2ec96fbf), [100,000,000 USDT on Ethereum](https://etherscan.io/tx/0x0c66d50a3ac9e7e40eda0b5149bdc2271fe51552560364e860a6d4ddf22cfa3d))",
  "cvd_summary": "The market is dominated by [Passive Absorption](https://thru.capital/ontology#passive-absorption), with 247 instances detected at a confidence of 194.6. This indicates significant passive liquidity walls absorbing aggressive selling pressure across multiple venues, including **[CoinbaseSpot BTC-USD]** (efficiency_ratio: 0.0288) and **[OkxInverse BTC-USD]** (efficiency_ratio: 0.0343). These [absorption](https://thru.capital/ontology#absorption-the-wall) events reflect orderbook imbalances where resting limit orders are effectively neutralizing market orders, preventing price declines. The persistent absorption against aggressive selling implies a [CVD](https://thru.capital/ontology#cvd) divergence where price action is contained despite directional market order flow, as seen with **[Bybit BTCPERP]** ([vpin](https://thru.capital/ontology#vpin): 0.9899) and **[BinanceSpot BTCUSDT]** ([vpin](https://thru.capital/ontology#vpin): 0.8324).| Venue/Instrument | Event Type | Time (UTC) | Confidence | Key Metric ||:-----------------|:-----------|:-----------|:-----------|:-----------|| **[OkxSpot BTC-USDC]** | Passive Absorption | 1 min ago | 0.80 | efficiency_ratio: 0.00 || **[Binance BTCUSDC]** | Passive Absorption | 2 min ago | 0.60 | efficiency_ratio: 0.0880 || **[Deribit BTC-24JUL26]** | Passive Absorption | 2 min ago | 0.80 | efficiency_ratio: 0.00 || **[Deribit BTC-28AUG26]** | Passive Absorption | 3 min ago | 0.80 | efficiency_ratio: 0.00 || **[CoinbaseSpot BTC-USD]** | Passive Absorption | 2.2 hours ago | 0.80 | efficiency_ratio: 0.0288 || **[OkxInverse BTC-USD]** | Passive Absorption | 2.2 hours ago | 0.80 | efficiency_ratio: 0.0343 || **[Bybit BTCPERP]** | Passive Absorption | 2.2 hours ago | 0.80 | efficiency_ratio: 0.0480 || **[BinanceSpot BTCUSDT]** | Passive Absorption | 2.3 hours ago | 0.80 | efficiency_ratio: 0.0974 |Passive liquidity walls are evident across numerous venues, with **[OkxSpot BTC-USDC]** and **[Deribit BTC-24JUL26]** showing recent absorption. This sustained passive buying is absorbing aggressive selling, creating orderbook imbalances that prevent significant price depreciation. The consistent absorption, despite market order flow, indicates a CVD divergence where price is held firm by deep liquidity.\n\n*[Extract the raw multi-venue Parquet tick data for this epoch via thrunode_archive](https://thru.capital/allocate)*",
  "date": "2026-07-18",
  "historical_clusters": [
    {
      "distance_score": 0,
      "timestamp_ns": 1784419604981988900,
      "date_str": "2026-07-19",
      "url": "https://thru.capital/microstructure/btc/2026-07-19",
      "regime": 3,
      "leverage_tier": 0,
      "efficiency_ratio": 0,
      "oi_velocity": 0
    },
    {
      "distance_score": 0,
      "timestamp_ns": 1784419503279946500,
      "date_str": "2026-07-19",
      "url": "https://thru.capital/microstructure/btc/2026-07-19",
      "regime": 3,
      "leverage_tier": 0,
      "efficiency_ratio": 0,
      "oi_velocity": 0
    },
    {
      "distance_score": 0,
      "timestamp_ns": 1784419203340402700,
      "date_str": "2026-07-19",
      "url": "https://thru.capital/microstructure/btc/2026-07-19",
      "regime": 3,
      "leverage_tier": 0,
      "efficiency_ratio": 0,
      "oi_velocity": 0
    }
  ]
}