{
  "title": "Passive Absorption (BTC) — July 16, 2026",
  "waterfall_summary": "The market was predominantly in an [Absorption](https://thru.capital/ontology#absorption-the-wall) regime, accounting for 78170 state blocks, indicating sustained passive demand. Minor [Compression](https://thru.capital/ontology#compression-coiling) (152 blocks) and [Expansion](https://thru.capital/ontology#expansion-discovery) (96 blocks) were observed, with 9108 blocks remaining [Indeterminate](https://thru.capital/ontology#indeterminate-ambiguous). Volatility, as measured by **CME_BTC_VOL**, was 45.2 on 2026-06-24. Multiple [Failed Expansion](https://thru.capital/ontology#failed-expansion) events across **Deribit BTC-PERPETUAL** and **BinanceCoinM BTCUSD_PERP** suggest price rejection, reinforcing the Absorption structure.\n\n| Venue/Instrument | Event Type | Time (UTC) | Confidence | Key Metric |\n|---|---|---|---|---|\n| **OkxInverse BTC-USD** | [Passive Absorption](https://thru.capital/ontology#passive-absorption) | [2026-07-16 14:59 UTC](https://thru.capital/microstructure/btc/2026-07-16#14-59) | 0.8000 | efficiency_ratio: 0.0999, [vpin](https://thru.capital/ontology#vpin): 0.8045 |\n| **BybitInverse BTCUSD** | Passive Absorption | [2026-07-16 14:59 UTC](https://thru.capital/microstructure/btc/2026-07-16#14-59) | 0.8000 | efficiency_ratio: 0.1152, [vpin](https://thru.capital/ontology#vpin): 0.9237 |\n| **Deribit BTC-PERPETUAL** | Failed Expansion | [2026-07-16 14:59 UTC](https://thru.capital/microstructure/btc/2026-07-16#14-59) | 0.8000 | exit_regime: Absorption |\n| **Bybit BTCPERP** | [Momentum Exhaustion](https://thru.capital/ontology#momentum-exhaustion) | [2026-07-16 14:55 UTC](https://thru.capital/microstructure/btc/2026-07-16#14-55) | 0.7500 | oi_velocity: -13.79 |\n| **Deribit BTC-24JUL26** | Passive Absorption | [2026-07-16 14:54 UTC](https://thru.capital/microstructure/btc/2026-07-16#14-54) | 0.8000 | efficiency_ratio: 0.00, vpin: 1.00 |\n| **BinanceCoinM BTCUSD_PERP** | Failed Expansion | [2026-07-16 14:43 UTC](https://thru.capital/microstructure/btc/2026-07-16#14-43) | 0.6000 | duration_bars: 1.00, exit_regime: Indeterminate |\n| **Deribit BTC_USDC-PERPETUAL** | [Liquidation Cascade](https://thru.capital/ontology#liquidation-cascade) | [2026-07-16 14:34 UTC](https://thru.capital/microstructure/btc/2026-07-16#14-34) | 0.7000 | oi_velocity: -32.10, leverage_tier: [Clean](https://thru.capital/ontology#clean-leverage) |\n\nVerified Execution & Macro Proofs:\n* **(See Verified Execution below)**\n\n## Verified Execution & Macro Proofs\n\n• [45.20 bps (Source Date: 2026-06-24)](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/cryptocurrencies/bitcoin/bitcoin.html)\n\n*[Extract the raw multi-venue Parquet tick data for this epoch via thrunode_archive](https://thru.capital/allocate)*",
  "radar_summary": "Funding trajectories showed significant bearish pressure, with **Bybit BTCUSDT** recording a -2.71 Z funding rate divergence and **Deribit BTC_USDC-PERPETUAL** experiencing multiple divergences up to -1.37 Z. Crowdedness was localized, with **BybitInverse BTCUSD** (+75.41 BPS [OI velocity](https://thru.capital/ontology#derivatives-reflexivity)) and **Deribit BTC_USDC-PERPETUAL** (+21.24 BPS OI velocity) showing [Elevated leverage](https://thru.capital/ontology#elevated-leverage). Long/short squeeze risks were highlighted by a [Liquidation Cascade](https://thru.capital/ontology#liquidation-cascade) on **Deribit BTC_USDC-PERPETUAL** (OI velocity -32.10 BPS) and [Momentum Exhaustion](https://thru.capital/ontology#momentum-exhaustion) events across **Bybit BTCPERP** and **BybitInverse BTCUSD**, indicating forced deleveraging.\n\nVerified Execution & Macro Proofs:\n* **(See Verified Execution below)**\n* **(See Verified Execution below)**\n\n## Verified Execution & Macro Proofs\n\n• 420,000,000 USDT ([220,000,000 USDT on Ethereum](https://etherscan.io/tx/0x6f257356f4d8bc030c6200318b84373e9c9e24065971cf6d9e0865480616f925), [100,000,000 USDT on Ethereum](https://etherscan.io/tx/0x00440492fef809c4e36e7f972d5ce15ab7760d322d53341fa9b3953d2ec96fbf), [100,000,000 USDT on Ethereum](https://etherscan.io/tx/0x0c66d50a3ac9e7e40eda0b5149bdc2271fe51552560364e860a6d4ddf22cfa3d))\n• baseline risk-free levels\n\n*[Extract the raw multi-venue Parquet tick data for this epoch via thrunode_archive](https://thru.capital/allocate)*",
  "cvd_summary": "Passive liquidity walls were evident through 353 [Passive Absorption](https://thru.capital/ontology#passive-absorption) events with 272.8 confidence, notably across **Deribit** instruments and **OkxLinear BTC-USDT**, absorbing aggressive selling pressure. Orderbook imbalances were indicated by significant passive buying interest on **OkxInverse BTC-USD** and **BybitInverse BTCUSD**. [CVD](https://thru.capital/ontology#cvd) divergences were observed during [Momentum Exhaustion](https://thru.capital/ontology#momentum-exhaustion) events on **BybitInverse BTCUSD** (0.8564 divergence) and **Deribit BTC_USDC-PERPETUAL** (1.00 divergence), signaling a mismatch between price action and cumulative volume delta.\n\n*[Extract the raw multi-venue Parquet tick data for this epoch via thrunode_archive](https://thru.capital/allocate)*",
  "date": "2026-07-16",
  "historical_clusters": [
    {
      "distance_score": 0,
      "timestamp_ns": 1784246201223935200,
      "date_str": "2026-07-16",
      "url": "https://thru.capital/microstructure/btc/2026-07-16",
      "regime": 0,
      "leverage_tier": 0,
      "efficiency_ratio": 0.54284133,
      "oi_velocity": 0
    },
    {
      "distance_score": 0.010183334350585938,
      "timestamp_ns": 1782885901846821600,
      "date_str": "2026-07-01",
      "url": "https://thru.capital/microstructure/btc/2026-07-01",
      "regime": 0,
      "leverage_tier": 0,
      "efficiency_ratio": 0.5460359,
      "oi_velocity": 0
    },
    {
      "distance_score": 0.0364532470703125,
      "timestamp_ns": 1782795302177755000,
      "date_str": "2026-06-30",
      "url": "https://thru.capital/microstructure/btc/2026-06-30",
      "regime": 0,
      "leverage_tier": 0,
      "efficiency_ratio": 0.53125216,
      "oi_velocity": 0
    }
  ]
}