{
  "title": "Passive Absorption (BTC) — July 14, 2026",
  "waterfall_summary": "The market was predominantly in an **[Absorption](https://thru.capital/ontology#absorption-the-wall)** regime, accounting for 76449 state blocks, indicating structural stability and robust bid-side liquidity. Minor [Compression](https://thru.capital/ontology#compression-coiling) (197 blocks) and [Expansion](https://thru.capital/ontology#expansion-discovery) (91 blocks) were observed, with a significant portion remaining [Indeterminate](https://thru.capital/ontology#indeterminate-ambiguous) (8282 blocks). **[CME_BTC_VOL]** was recorded at 45.2 as of 2026-06-24.\n\n| Venue/Instrument | Event Type | Time (UTC) | Confidence | Key Metric |\n|---|---|---|---|---|\n| **[Deribit BTC-17JUL26]** | [Passive Absorption](https://thru.capital/ontology#passive-absorption) | Intraday (1 min ago) | 0.8000 | [VPIN](https://thru.capital/ontology#vpin): 1.00 |\n| **[Bybit BTCPERP]** | [Momentum Exhaustion](https://thru.capital/ontology#momentum-exhaustion) | Intraday (2 min ago) | 0.7500 | [OI Velocity](https://thru.capital/ontology#derivatives-reflexivity): -40.67 BPS |\n| **[OkxInverse BTC-USD]** | [Liquidation Cascade](https://thru.capital/ontology#liquidation-cascade) | Intraday (11 min ago) | 0.7000 | OI Velocity: -23.92 |\n| **[Deribit BTC-PERPETUAL]** | [Failed Expansion](https://thru.capital/ontology#failed-expansion) | Intraday (recent) | N/A | N/A |\n\nThe aggregate structural events indicate a market characterized by strong passive absorption, with 248 instances detected. However, 53 [liquidation cascades](https://thru.capital/ontology#liquidation-cascade), notably on **[OkxInverse BTC-USD]**, and 34 momentum [exhaustion](https://thru.capital/ontology#exhaustion-the-fade) events, including on **[Bybit BTCPERP]**, suggest periods of reactive deleveraging and depleted aggressive flow. Failed expansion events on **[Deribit BTC-PERPETUAL]** further highlight rejected breakout attempts within the broader absorption context.\n\nVerified Execution & Macro Proofs\n* **(See Verified Execution below)**\n* **(See Verified Execution below)**\n\n## Verified Execution & Macro Proofs\n\n• 420,000,000 USDT ([220,000,000 USDT on Ethereum](https://etherscan.io/tx/0x6f257356f4d8bc030c6200318b84373e9c9e24065971cf6d9e0865480616f925), [100,000,000 USDT on Ethereum](https://etherscan.io/tx/0x00440492fef809c4e36e7f972d5ce15ab7760d322d53341fa9b3953d2ec96fbf), [100,000,000 USDT on Ethereum](https://etherscan.io/tx/0x0c66d50a3ac9e7e40eda0b5149bdc2271fe51552560364e860a6d4ddf22cfa3d))\n• [45.20 bps (Source Date: 2026-06-24)](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/cryptocurrencies/bitcoin/bitcoin.html)\n\n*[Extract the raw multi-venue Parquet tick data for this epoch via thrunode_archive](https://thru.capital/allocate)*",
  "radar_summary": "Funding rates across **[BybitInverse BTCUSD]** (-6.46 Z) and **[Binance BTCUSDT]** (-2.60 Z) exhibited significant negative divergences, indicating crowded short positioning and a high risk of short squeezes if passive absorption persists. Concurrently, **[Bybit BTCPERP]** showed aggressive long positioning with an OI velocity of +41.82 BPS and elevated leverage, creating vulnerability for long liquidations. A [liquidation cascade](https://thru.capital/ontology#liquidation-cascade) on **[OkxInverse BTC-USD]** ([OI velocity](https://thru.capital/ontology#derivatives-reflexivity) -23.92) further highlights deleveraging risks within the market.\n\n| Venue/Instrument | Event Type | Time (UTC) | Confidence | Key Metric |\n|---|---|---|---|---|\n| **[Deribit BTC-17JUL26]** | [Passive Absorption](https://thru.capital/ontology#passive-absorption) | Intraday (1 min ago) | 0.8000 | [VPIN](https://thru.capital/ontology#vpin): 1.00 |\n| **[Bybit BTCPERP]** | [Momentum Exhaustion](https://thru.capital/ontology#momentum-exhaustion) | Intraday (2 min ago) | 0.7500 | OI Velocity: -40.67 BPS |\n| **[OkxInverse BTC-USD]** | Liquidation Cascade | Intraday (11 min ago) | 0.7000 | OI Velocity: -23.92 |\n| **[Deribit BTC-PERPETUAL]** | [Failed Expansion](https://thru.capital/ontology#failed-expansion) | Intraday (recent) | N/A | N/A |\n\nThe aggregate data reveals 53 [liquidation cascades](https://thru.capital/ontology#liquidation-cascade), primarily on **[OkxInverse BTC-USD]**, indicating periods of rapid deleveraging. Momentum exhaustion events, such as on **[Bybit BTCPERP]**, suggest a depletion of aggressive directional conviction. The persistent negative funding rates across major venues signal crowded short positions, while [elevated leverage](https://thru.capital/ontology#elevated-leverage) in specific instruments like **[Bybit BTCPERP]** amplifies the risk of both short and long squeezes.\n\nVerified Execution & Macro Proofs\n* **(See Verified Execution below)**\n\n## Verified Execution & Macro Proofs\n\n• baseline risk-free levels\n\n*[Extract the raw multi-venue Parquet tick data for this epoch via thrunode_archive](https://thru.capital/allocate)*",
  "cvd_summary": "Widespread [passive absorption](https://thru.capital/ontology#passive-absorption) was detected across multiple venues, including **[Deribit BTC-17JUL26]**, **[BybitInverse BTCUSD]**, and **[Hyperliquid BTC]**, indicating robust bid-side liquidity walls absorbing aggressive selling. Despite this, significant negative funding divergences on **[Binance BTCUSDT]** (-2.60 Z) and **[BybitInverse BTCUSD]** (-6.46 Z) suggest persistent short-side pressure and orderbook imbalances. A CVD divergence of 0.6059 on **[Bybit BTCPERP]** during [momentum exhaustion](https://thru.capital/ontology#momentum-exhaustion) further confirms aggressive flow being absorbed against passive bids.\n\n| Venue/Instrument | Event Type | Time (UTC) | Confidence | Key Metric |\n|---|---|---|---|---|\n| **[Deribit BTC-17JUL26]** | Passive [Absorption](https://thru.capital/ontology#absorption-the-wall) | Intraday (1 min ago) | 0.8000 | [VPIN](https://thru.capital/ontology#vpin): 1.00 |\n| **[Bybit BTCPERP]** | Momentum Exhaustion | Intraday (2 min ago) | 0.7500 | [OI Velocity](https://thru.capital/ontology#derivatives-reflexivity): -40.67 BPS |\n| **[OkxInverse BTC-USD]** | [Liquidation Cascade](https://thru.capital/ontology#liquidation-cascade) | Intraday (11 min ago) | 0.7000 | OI Velocity: -23.92 |\n| **[Deribit BTC-PERPETUAL]** | [Failed Expansion](https://thru.capital/ontology#failed-expansion) | Intraday (recent) | N/A | N/A |\n\nThe market's dominant passive absorption, with 248 instances, indicates significant liquidity walls. However, 53 [liquidation cascades](https://thru.capital/ontology#liquidation-cascade) and 34 momentum [exhaustion](https://thru.capital/ontology#exhaustion-the-fade) events suggest periods where aggressive selling overwhelmed immediate liquidity, leading to price dislocations. Orderbook imbalances, evidenced by negative funding rates, indicate a structural bias towards short-side pressure being absorbed by these passive bids.\n\nVerified Execution & Macro Proofs\n* **(See Verified Execution below)**\n\n## Verified Execution & Macro Proofs\n\n• 420,000,000 USDT ([220,000,000 USDT on Ethereum](https://etherscan.io/tx/0x6f257356f4d8bc030c6200318b84373e9c9e24065971cf6d9e0865480616f925), [100,000,000 USDT on Ethereum](https://etherscan.io/tx/0x00440492fef809c4e36e7f972d5ce15ab7760d322d53341fa9b3953d2ec96fbf), [100,000,000 USDT on Ethereum](https://etherscan.io/tx/0x0c66d50a3ac9e7e40eda0b5149bdc2271fe51552560364e860a6d4ddf22cfa3d))\n\n*[Extract the raw multi-venue Parquet tick data for this epoch via thrunode_archive](https://thru.capital/allocate)*",
  "date": "2026-07-14",
  "historical_clusters": [
    {
      "distance_score": 0,
      "timestamp_ns": 1784073396760859400,
      "date_str": "2026-07-14",
      "url": "https://thru.capital/microstructure/btc/2026-07-14",
      "regime": 0,
      "leverage_tier": 0,
      "efficiency_ratio": 0.2533278,
      "oi_velocity": 0
    },
    {
      "distance_score": 0.0009784698486328125,
      "timestamp_ns": 1781731871833299000,
      "date_str": "2026-06-17",
      "url": "https://thru.capital/microstructure/btc/2026-06-17",
      "regime": 0,
      "leverage_tier": 0,
      "efficiency_ratio": 0.24991893,
      "oi_velocity": 0
    },
    {
      "distance_score": 0.00424957275390625,
      "timestamp_ns": 1781837172352929800,
      "date_str": "2026-06-19",
      "url": "https://thru.capital/microstructure/btc/2026-06-19",
      "regime": 0,
      "leverage_tier": 0,
      "efficiency_ratio": 0.25893267,
      "oi_velocity": 0
    }
  ]
}