{
  "title": "Passive Absorption in Compression (BTC) — July 13, 2026",
  "waterfall_summary": "The market predominantly operated within a [Compression](https://thru.capital/ontology#compression-coiling) regime, accounting for 75361 state blocks, indicating a period of consolidation and structural stability. Volatility, as measured by **[CME_BTC_VOL]**, registered at 45.2, suggesting moderate institutional hedging activity. Despite the overall Compression, 35 instances of failed expansion (confidence 23.0) were detected, indicating rejected attempts at price discovery and a lack of sustained directional momentum. The presence of 39 [liquidation cascades](https://thru.capital/ontology#liquidation-cascade) (confidence 27.3) further highlights localized instability within the broader consolidation.  \n\nVerified Execution & Macro Proofs\n* **(See Verified Execution below)**\n* **(See Verified Execution below)**\n\n## Verified Execution & Macro Proofs\n\n• 420,000,000 USDT ([220,000,000 USDT on Ethereum](https://etherscan.io/tx/0x6f257356f4d8bc030c6200318b84373e9c9e24065971cf6d9e0865480616f925), [100,000,000 USDT on Ethereum](https://etherscan.io/tx/0x00440492fef809c4e36e7f972d5ce15ab7760d322d53341fa9b3953d2ec96fbf), [100,000,000 USDT on Ethereum](https://etherscan.io/tx/0x0c66d50a3ac9e7e40eda0b5149bdc2271fe51552560364e860a6d4ddf22cfa3d))\n• [45.20 bps (Source Date: 2026-06-24)](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/cryptocurrencies/bitcoin/bitcoin.html)\n\n*[Extract the raw multi-venue Parquet tick data for this epoch via thrunode_archive](https://thru.capital/allocate)*",
  "radar_summary": "Funding trajectories exhibited significant divergences, with **[Bybit BTCPERP]** recording a -5.83 Z-score and **[OkxInverse BTC-USD]** at -1.76 Z, indicating a strong short bias on these perpetual contracts. This negative funding suggests crowded short positioning, creating a vulnerability for potential short squeezes if passive absorption persists. While overall leverage remained Clean, pockets of Elevated leverage were observed on **[OkxLinear BTC-USDT]**, **[Bybit BTCUSDT]**, and **[BinanceCoinM BTCUSD_PERP]**, contributing to localized [liquidation cascades](https://thru.capital/ontology#liquidation-cascade).  \n\nVerified Execution & Macro Proofs\n* **(See Verified Execution below)**\n* **(See Verified Execution below)**\n\n## Verified Execution & Macro Proofs\n\n• 420,000,000 USDT ([220,000,000 USDT on Ethereum](https://etherscan.io/tx/0x6f257356f4d8bc030c6200318b84373e9c9e24065971cf6d9e0865480616f925), [100,000,000 USDT on Ethereum](https://etherscan.io/tx/0x00440492fef809c4e36e7f972d5ce15ab7760d322d53341fa9b3953d2ec96fbf), [100,000,000 USDT on Ethereum](https://etherscan.io/tx/0x0c66d50a3ac9e7e40eda0b5149bdc2271fe51552560364e860a6d4ddf22cfa3d))\n• baseline risk-free levels\n\n*[Extract the raw multi-venue Parquet tick data for this epoch via thrunode_archive](https://thru.capital/allocate)*",
  "cvd_summary": "[Passive absorption](https://thru.capital/ontology#passive-absorption) was the dominant structural event, with 209 instances and a confidence score of 164.6, indicating significant passive liquidity walls absorbing aggressive selling across multiple venues, particularly **[Deribit]** futures and options. Concurrently, 45 instances of momentum exhaustion (confidence 33.75) suggest a depletion of informed flow, while 39 [liquidation cascades](https://thru.capital/ontology#liquidation-cascade) (confidence 27.3) and 35 [failed expansion](https://thru.capital/ontology#failed-expansion) attempts (confidence 23.0) point to reactive unwinding and rejected breakout efforts. Orderbook imbalances were characterized by persistent bids meeting aggressive sell-side pressure, preventing significant price discovery. While passive [absorption](https://thru.capital/ontology#absorption-the-wall) was dominant, several spot and perpetual venues, including **[BybitSpot BTCUSDT]**, **[OkxSpot BTC-USDT]**, and **[Deribit BTC-PERPETUAL]**, exhibited Indeterminate states, indicating fragmented conviction.  | Venue/Instrument | Event Type | Time (UTC) | Confidence | Key Metric ||---|---|---|---|---|| Multiple Venues | Passive Absorption | Throughout Day | 164.6 | Count: 209 || Multiple Venues | Momentum Exhaustion | Throughout Day | 33.75 | Count: 45 || Multiple Venues | [Liquidation Cascade](https://thru.capital/ontology#liquidation-cascade) | Throughout Day | 27.3 | Count: 39 || Multiple Venues | Failed [Expansion](https://thru.capital/ontology#expansion-discovery) | Throughout Day | 23.0 | Count: 35 |\n\n*[Extract the raw multi-venue Parquet tick data for this epoch via thrunode_archive](https://thru.capital/allocate)*",
  "date": "2026-07-13",
  "historical_clusters": [
    {
      "distance_score": 0,
      "timestamp_ns": 1783986996203810000,
      "date_str": "2026-07-13",
      "url": "https://thru.capital/microstructure/btc/2026-07-13",
      "regime": 0,
      "leverage_tier": 0,
      "efficiency_ratio": 0.32770771,
      "oi_velocity": 0
    },
    {
      "distance_score": 0.011382102966308594,
      "timestamp_ns": 1782243901908452000,
      "date_str": "2026-06-23",
      "url": "https://thru.capital/microstructure/btc/2026-06-23",
      "regime": 0,
      "leverage_tier": 0,
      "efficiency_ratio": 0.31461243,
      "oi_velocity": 0
    },
    {
      "distance_score": 0.01178741455078125,
      "timestamp_ns": 1782008774536408800,
      "date_str": "2026-06-21",
      "url": "https://thru.capital/microstructure/btc/2026-06-21",
      "regime": 0,
      "leverage_tier": 0,
      "efficiency_ratio": 0.33421566,
      "oi_velocity": 0
    }
  ]
}