{
  "title": "Passive Absorption in Absorption (BTC) — July 09, 2026",
  "waterfall_summary": "The market maintained a dominant [Absorption](https://thru.capital/ontology#absorption-the-wall) regime with 95% venue consensus, indicating structural stability despite localized volatility. Multiple [failed expansion](https://thru.capital/ontology#failed-expansion) attempts were observed on **[Deribit BTC-PERPETUAL]**, with exit regimes classified as [Indeterminate](https://thru.capital/ontology#indeterminate-ambiguous), confirming resistance to upward price discovery. Treasury inflows included a **[USDT_MINT_1]** of 220,000,000.0 on 2026-06-21, alongside two **[USDT_MINT_2]** of 100,000,000.0 each on 2026-06-18, providing macro liquidity context.\n\n| Venue/Instrument | Event Type | Time (UTC) | Confidence | Key Metric |\n|---|---|---|---|---|\n| **[Deribit BTC-PERPETUAL]** | Failed [Expansion](https://thru.capital/ontology#expansion-discovery) | Recent | 0.6000 | exit_regime: Indeterminate |\n\nVerified Execution & Macro Proofs\n* **(See Verified Execution below)**\n\n## Verified Execution & Macro Proofs\n\n• 420,000,000 USDT ([220,000,000 USDT on Ethereum](https://etherscan.io/tx/0x6f257356f4d8bc030c6200318b84373e9c9e24065971cf6d9e0865480616f925), [100,000,000 USDT on Ethereum](https://etherscan.io/tx/0x00440492fef809c4e36e7f972d5ce15ab7760d322d53341fa9b3953d2ec96fbf), [100,000,000 USDT on Ethereum](https://etherscan.io/tx/0x0c66d50a3ac9e7e40eda0b5149bdc2271fe51552560364e860a6d4ddf22cfa3d))",
  "radar_summary": "Funding trajectories displayed significant negative divergences, with **[BinanceCoinM BTCUSD_PERP]** recording a -2.35 Z-score and **[BybitInverse BTCUSD]** a -2.30 Z-score, indicating crowded short positioning. Localized [liquidation cascades](https://thru.capital/ontology#liquidation-cascade) on **[Deribit BTC_USDC-PERPETUAL]** (-24.46 BPS OI velocity) and **[OkxLinear BTC-USDT]** (-47.78 BPS OI velocity) confirm short squeeze risks amidst broader [momentum exhaustion](https://thru.capital/ontology#momentum-exhaustion) across **[Hyperliquid BTC]** and **[BybitInverse BTCUSD]**. The **[CME_BTC_VOL]** registered 45.2, reflecting institutional hedging activity.\n\n| Venue/Instrument | Event Type | Time (UTC) | Confidence | Key Metric |\n|---|---|---|---|---|\n| **[Hyperliquid BTC]** | Momentum [Exhaustion](https://thru.capital/ontology#exhaustion-the-fade) | Recent | 0.7500 | oi_velocity: -12.78 |\n| **[BybitInverse BTCUSD]** | Momentum Exhaustion | Recent | 0.7500 | oi_velocity: -13.69 |\n| **[Deribit BTC_USDC-PERPETUAL]** | [Liquidation Cascade](https://thru.capital/ontology#liquidation-cascade) | Recent | 0.7000 | oi_velocity: -24.46 |\n| **[OkxLinear BTC-USDT]** | Liquidation Cascade | Recent | 0.7000 | oi_velocity: -47.78 |\n\nVerified Execution & Macro Proofs\n* **(See Verified Execution below)**\n* **(See Verified Execution below)**\n\n## Verified Execution & Macro Proofs\n\n• baseline risk-free levels\n• [45.20 bps (Source Date: 2026-06-24)](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/cryptocurrencies/bitcoin/bitcoin.html)\n\n*[Extract the raw multi-venue Parquet tick data for this epoch via thrunode_archive](https://thru.capital/allocate)*",
  "cvd_summary": "The market exhibited widespread [passive absorption](https://thru.capital/ontology#passive-absorption), with 9 venues classified in this state, indicating institutional bids absorbed aggressive selling pressure. Significant funding divergences were observed, notably -2.35 Z on **[BinanceCoinM BTCUSD_PERP]** and -2.30 Z on **[BybitInverse BTCUSD]**, suggesting orderbook imbalances favoring short-side pressure. This structural setup confirms a prevailing passive liquidity wall across multiple **[Deribit]** instruments.\n\n| Venue/Instrument | Event Type | Time (UTC) | Confidence | Key Metric |\n|---|---|---|---|---|\n| **[Deribit]** BTC-17JUL26 | Passive [Absorption](https://thru.capital/ontology#absorption-the-wall) | Recent | 0.8000 | efficiency_ratio: 0.00 |\n| **[Deribit]** BTC_USDC-PERPETUAL | Passive Absorption | Recent | 0.8000 | [Efficiency Ratio](https://thru.capital/ontology#delta-efficiency): 0.0652 |\n| **[Deribit]** BTC-26MAR27 | Passive Absorption | Recent | 0.8000 | Efficiency Ratio: 0.00 |\n| **[Deribit Options [190]]** | Passive Absorption | Recent | 0.8000 | [vpin](https://thru.capital/ontology#vpin): 1.00 |\n\n*[Extract the raw multi-venue Parquet tick data for this epoch via thrunode_archive](https://thru.capital/allocate)*",
  "date": "2026-07-09",
  "historical_clusters": [
    {
      "distance_score": 0,
      "timestamp_ns": 1783641902611844600,
      "date_str": "2026-07-10",
      "url": "https://thru.capital/microstructure/btc/2026-07-10",
      "regime": 3,
      "leverage_tier": 0,
      "efficiency_ratio": 0,
      "oi_velocity": 0
    },
    {
      "distance_score": 0,
      "timestamp_ns": 1783641901029252400,
      "date_str": "2026-07-10",
      "url": "https://thru.capital/microstructure/btc/2026-07-10",
      "regime": 3,
      "leverage_tier": 0,
      "efficiency_ratio": 0,
      "oi_velocity": 0
    },
    {
      "distance_score": 0,
      "timestamp_ns": 1783641602637487400,
      "date_str": "2026-07-10",
      "url": "https://thru.capital/microstructure/btc/2026-07-10",
      "regime": 3,
      "leverage_tier": 0,
      "efficiency_ratio": 0,
      "oi_velocity": 0
    }
  ]
}