{
  "title": "Passive Absorption in Absorption (BTC) — July 07, 2026",
  "waterfall_summary": "The market's macro regime is predominantly [Absorption](https://thru.capital/ontology#absorption-the-wall), with 82-96% venue consensus, indicating structural stability characterized by passive liquidity. Volatility, as indicated by **[CME_BTC_VOL]** at 45.2 on 2026-06-24, suggests moderate institutional hedging activity. Structural stability is challenged by multiple failed expansion attempts on **[Deribit BTC-PERPETUAL]**, **[OkxInverse BTC-USD]**, and **[BinanceCoinM BTCUSD_PERP]**, indicating rejected breakout efforts and price containment within the absorption block. The market remains in a low-conviction chop, with historical analogs predominantly Indeterminate, suggesting a lack of clear structural precedent.L2 Structural Events| Venue/Instrument | Event Type | Time (UTC) | Confidence | Key Metric ||:-----------------|:-----------|:-----------|:-----------|:-----------|| **[Deribit BTC-PERPETUAL]** | Failed Expansion | Recent | 0.6000 | duration_bars: 1.00 || **[BinanceCoinM BTCUSD_PERP]** | Failed Expansion | Recent | 0.6000 | duration_bars: 1.00 || **[Bybit BTCPERP]** | Momentum Exhaustion | Recent | 0.7500 | oi_velocity: -15.07 || **[OkxInverse BTC-USD]** | [Liquidation Cascade](https://thru.capital/ontology#liquidation-cascade) | Recent | 0.7000 | oi_velocity: -20.06 || **[Deribit BTC_USDC-31JUL26]** | [Passive Absorption](https://thru.capital/ontology#passive-absorption) | Recent | 0.8000 | efficiency_ratio: 0.00 |Verified Execution & Macro Proofs:<ul><li>**(See Verified Execution below)**</li></ul>\n\n## Verified Execution & Macro Proofs\n\n• [45.20 bps (Source Date: 2026-06-24)](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/cryptocurrencies/bitcoin/bitcoin.html)\n\n*[Extract the raw multi-venue Parquet tick data for this epoch via thrunode_archive](https://thru.capital/allocate)*",
  "radar_summary": "Funding trajectories show significant negative divergence on **[Deribit BTC-PERPETUAL]** (up to -2.58 Z), indicating a localized short bias or hedging activity. Crowdedness is suggested by localized [liquidation cascades](https://thru.capital/ontology#liquidation-cascade) on **[OkxInverse BTC-USD]**, **[OkxLinear BTC-USDT]**, and **[Bybit BTCPERP]** (with OI velocity drops up to -96.56 BPS), indicating deleveraging events. Long/short squeeze risks are present on **[Deribit BTC-PERPETUAL]** due to the persistent negative funding anomaly within an Absorption regime, creating vulnerability for short squeezes if passive accumulation continues. Leverage across most venues remains Clean, though **[OkxInverse BTC-USD]** and **[Deribit BTC_USDC-PERPETUAL]** exhibited [Elevated leverage](https://thru.capital/ontology#elevated-leverage).Verified Execution & Macro Proofs:<ul><li>**(See Verified Execution below)**</li></ul>\n\n## Verified Execution & Macro Proofs\n\n• baseline risk-free levels\n\n*[Extract the raw multi-venue Parquet tick data for this epoch via thrunode_archive](https://thru.capital/allocate)*",
  "cvd_summary": "Passive liquidity walls are evident through widespread [passive absorption](https://thru.capital/ontology#passive-absorption) across multiple venues, including **[Deribit Options [190]]**, **[Deribit BTC-26MAR27]**, **[Deribit BTC-17JUL26]**, and **[BybitSpot BTCUSDT]**, indicating persistent institutional buying. Orderbook imbalances are suggested by significant negative funding divergences on **[Deribit BTC-PERPETUAL]** (ranging from -2.22 Z to -2.58 Z), indicating localized short pressure against the prevailing absorption. CVD divergences are further implied by positive [OI velocity](https://thru.capital/ontology#derivatives-reflexivity) on **[OkxInverse BTC-USD]** (+19.00 BPS), **[Hyperliquid BTC]** (+12.81 BPS), and **[Binance BTCUSDC]** (+11.60 BPS), suggesting accumulation within the [absorption](https://thru.capital/ontology#absorption-the-wall) block despite negative funding.Verified Execution & Macro Proofs:<ul><li>**(See Verified Execution below)**</li></ul>\n\n## Verified Execution & Macro Proofs\n\n• 420,000,000 USDT ([220,000,000 USDT on Ethereum](https://etherscan.io/tx/0x6f257356f4d8bc030c6200318b84373e9c9e24065971cf6d9e0865480616f925), [100,000,000 USDT on Ethereum](https://etherscan.io/tx/0x00440492fef809c4e36e7f972d5ce15ab7760d322d53341fa9b3953d2ec96fbf), [100,000,000 USDT on Ethereum](https://etherscan.io/tx/0x0c66d50a3ac9e7e40eda0b5149bdc2271fe51552560364e860a6d4ddf22cfa3d))\n\n*[Extract the raw multi-venue Parquet tick data for this epoch via thrunode_archive](https://thru.capital/allocate)*",
  "date": "2026-07-07",
  "historical_clusters": [
    {
      "distance_score": 0,
      "timestamp_ns": 1783468593383298000,
      "date_str": "2026-07-07",
      "url": "https://thru.capital/microstructure/btc/2026-07-07",
      "regime": 0,
      "leverage_tier": 0,
      "efficiency_ratio": 0.51656144,
      "oi_velocity": 0
    },
    {
      "distance_score": 0.018718719482421875,
      "timestamp_ns": 1781163601526716700,
      "date_str": "2026-06-11",
      "url": "https://thru.capital/microstructure/btc/2026-06-11",
      "regime": 0,
      "leverage_tier": 0,
      "efficiency_ratio": 0.52460158,
      "oi_velocity": 0
    },
    {
      "distance_score": 0.02486419677734375,
      "timestamp_ns": 1782704403255042800,
      "date_str": "2026-06-29",
      "url": "https://thru.capital/microstructure/btc/2026-06-29",
      "regime": 0,
      "leverage_tier": 0,
      "efficiency_ratio": 0.49607585,
      "oi_velocity": 0
    }
  ]
}