{
  "title": "Passive Absorption in Absorption (BTC) — July 02, 2026",
  "waterfall_summary": "The market maintained a dominant [Absorption](https://thru.capital/ontology#absorption-the-wall) regime, accounting for 65788 state blocks, indicating structural stability. Despite this, 8726 state blocks were classified as [Indeterminate](https://thru.capital/ontology#indeterminate-ambiguous), suggesting localized noise. Volatility, as measured by **[CME_BTC_VOL]**, was recorded at 45.2. [Failed Expansion](https://thru.capital/ontology#failed-expansion) events (23 instances, confidence 17.2) on venues such as **[Deribit BTC-PERPETUAL]** indicated rejected attempts to transition out of the current structural stability.\\n\\nVerified Execution & Macro Proofs:\\n- **(See Verified Execution below)**\n\n## Verified Execution & Macro Proofs\n\n• [45.20 bps (Source Date: 2026-06-24)](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/cryptocurrencies/bitcoin/bitcoin.html)",
  "radar_summary": "Funding trajectories exhibited significant divergences across venues. **[Bybit BTCPERP]** recorded a funding divergence of -1.36 Z, **[BinanceCoinM BTCUSD_PERP]** showed -1.13 Z, and **[Deribit BTC_USDC-PERPETUAL]** exhibited -1.42 Z. Leverage state remained Clean across all observed instruments, indicating no immediate cascade risk. However, these negative funding divergences created a vulnerability for potential short squeezes if the absorption continued. [Open Interest (OI) velocity](https://thru.capital/ontology#derivatives-reflexivity) diverged, with **[Binance BTCUSDC]** at -17.25 BPS and **[Hyperliquid BTC]** at +8.63 BPS.\\n\\nVerified Execution & Macro Proofs:\\n- **(See Verified Execution below)**\\n- **(See Verified Execution below)**\n\n## Verified Execution & Macro Proofs\n\n• 420,000,000 USDT ([220,000,000 USDT on Ethereum](https://etherscan.io/tx/0x6f257356f4d8bc030c6200318b84373e9c9e24065971cf6d9e0865480616f925), [100,000,000 USDT on Ethereum](https://etherscan.io/tx/0x00440492fef809c4e36e7f972d5ce15ab7760d322d53341fa9b3953d2ec96fbf), [100,000,000 USDT on Ethereum](https://etherscan.io/tx/0x0c66d50a3ac9e7e40eda0b5149bdc2271fe51552560364e860a6d4ddf22cfa3d))\n• baseline risk-free levels",
  "cvd_summary": "[Passive absorption](https://thru.capital/ontology#passive-absorption) was the dominant structural event, with 264 instances detected at a confidence of 205.8. This indicates sustained institutional buying into supply across multiple venues. Bids absorbed aggressive selling pressure, particularly on **[Deribit]** and **[BinanceCoinM]**, consistent with the overall Absorption regime. A [failed expansion](https://thru.capital/ontology#failed-expansion) on **[Deribit BTC-PERPETUAL]** suggests a rejected breakout attempt.\\n\\n| Venue/Instrument | Event Type | Time (UTC) | Confidence | Key Metric |\\n|---|---|---|---|---|\\n| OkxInverse BTC-USD | Passive Absorption | Intraday | 0.8000 | efficiency_ratio: 0.1357, vpin: 0.8298 |\\n| Hyperliquid BTC | Passive Absorption | Intraday | 0.8000 | efficiency_ratio: 0.0782, vpin: 0.7154 |\\n| Deribit BTC-10JUL26 | Passive Absorption | Intraday | 0.8000 | efficiency_ratio: 0.00, vpin: 1.00 |\\n| BinanceCoinM BTCUSD_PERP | Passive Absorption | Intraday | 0.8000 | efficiency_ratio: 0.0079, vpin: 1.00 |\\n| Deribit BTC-PERPETUAL | Failed Expansion | Intraday | 0.6000 | exit_regime: [Indeterminate](https://thru.capital/ontology#indeterminate-ambiguous) |\n\n*[Extract the raw multi-venue Parquet tick data for this epoch via thrunode_archive](https://thru.capital/allocate)*",
  "date": "2026-07-02",
  "historical_clusters": [
    {
      "distance_score": 0,
      "timestamp_ns": 1783036587141584600,
      "date_str": "2026-07-02",
      "url": "https://thru.capital/microstructure/btc/2026-07-02",
      "regime": 0,
      "leverage_tier": 0,
      "efficiency_ratio": 0.20835394,
      "oi_velocity": 0
    },
    {
      "distance_score": 0.0734100341796875,
      "timestamp_ns": 1780910700954536000,
      "date_str": "2026-06-08",
      "url": "https://thru.capital/microstructure/btc/2026-06-08",
      "regime": 0,
      "leverage_tier": 0,
      "efficiency_ratio": 0.24310441,
      "oi_velocity": 0
    },
    {
      "distance_score": 0.092620849609375,
      "timestamp_ns": 1782776185420752600,
      "date_str": "2026-06-29",
      "url": "https://thru.capital/microstructure/btc/2026-06-29",
      "regime": 0,
      "leverage_tier": 0,
      "efficiency_ratio": 0.19184123,
      "oi_velocity": 0
    }
  ]
}