{
  "title": "Prolonged Passive Absorption in Compression (BTC) — June 28, 2026",
  "waterfall_summary": "The market was characterized by a dominant **[Absorption](https://thru.capital/ontology#absorption-the-wall)** regime (63455 blocks), with significant **[Indeterminate](https://thru.capital/ontology#indeterminate-ambiguous)** states (8307 blocks) and minor **[Compression](https://thru.capital/ontology#compression-coiling)** (153 blocks) and **[Expansion](https://thru.capital/ontology#expansion-discovery)** (88 blocks) activity. **CME_BTC_VOL** registered 45.2, indicating moderate institutional volatility. Structural stability was defined by prolonged **[Passive Absorption](https://thru.capital/ontology#passive-absorption)** (312 events, confidence 242.8) and multiple **[Failed Expansion](https://thru.capital/ontology#failed-expansion)** attempts (37 events, confidence 26.2) across various venues, suggesting price consolidation against aggressive flow.\n\n| Venue/Instrument | Event Type | Time (UTC) | Confidence | Key Metric |\n|:-----------------|:-----------|:-----------|:-----------|:-----------|\n| Multiple Venues | Passive Absorption | Throughout Day | 242.8 | 312 occurrences |\n| Multiple Venues | Failed Expansion | Throughout Day | 26.2 | 37 occurrences |\n| Multiple Venues | [Momentum Exhaustion](https://thru.capital/ontology#momentum-exhaustion) | Throughout Day | 22.5 | 30 occurrences |\n| Multiple Venues | [Liquidation Cascade](https://thru.capital/ontology#liquidation-cascade) | Throughout Day | 13.3 | 19 occurrences |\n\nThe market was dominated by **Absorption**, with attempts at **Expansion** consistently failing, indicating a structural resistance to upward price movement. This, combined with detected **Momentum [Exhaustion](https://thru.capital/ontology#exhaustion-the-fade)**, suggests a period of consolidation and reduced volatility, despite minor **[Liquidation Cascades](https://thru.capital/ontology#liquidation-cascade)**.\n\nVerified Execution & Macro Proofs:\n- **(See Verified Execution below)**\n\n## Verified Execution & Macro Proofs\n\n• [45.20 bps (Source Date: 2026-06-24)](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/cryptocurrencies/bitcoin/bitcoin.html)\n\n*[Extract the raw multi-venue Parquet tick data for this epoch via thrunode_archive](https://thru.capital/allocate)*",
  "radar_summary": "Significant negative funding divergences were observed, notably on **Deribit BTC-PERPETUAL** (-1.68 Z), **BybitInverse BTCUSD** (-3.05 Z), and **OkxLinear BTC-USDT** (-1.86 Z), indicating localized short-side pressure or hedging activity. This negative funding, coupled with varying [OI velocity](https://thru.capital/ontology#derivatives-reflexivity) (e.g., +11.38 BPS on **Deribit BTC-PERPETUAL**, -12.71 BPS on **Hyperliquid BTC**, +4.24 BPS on **BybitInverse BTCUSD**), suggests a [crowded](https://thru.capital/ontology#crowded-leverage) short positioning in specific instruments. Despite a generally **[Clean leverage](https://thru.capital/ontology#clean-leverage)** state across observed instruments, the localized negative funding and high OI velocity on certain venues create a vulnerability for potential short squeezes if [passive absorption](https://thru.capital/ontology#passive-absorption) continues to drive prices upward.\n\n| Venue/Instrument | Event Type | Time (UTC) | Confidence | Key Metric |\n|:-----------------|:-----------|:-----------|:-----------|:-----------|\n| Multiple Venues | Passive [Absorption](https://thru.capital/ontology#absorption-the-wall) | Throughout Day | 242.8 | 312 occurrences |\n| Multiple Venues | [Failed Expansion](https://thru.capital/ontology#failed-expansion) | Throughout Day | 26.2 | 37 occurrences |\n| Multiple Venues | [Momentum Exhaustion](https://thru.capital/ontology#momentum-exhaustion) | Throughout Day | 22.5 | 30 occurrences |\n| Multiple Venues | [Liquidation Cascade](https://thru.capital/ontology#liquidation-cascade) | Throughout Day | 13.3 | 19 occurrences |\n\nThe market exhibited significant negative funding rates on key perpetuals, indicating a crowded short bias in specific instruments. Despite a **[Clean](https://thru.capital/ontology#clean-leverage) leverage** state, the persistent **Passive Absorption** against these short positions creates a structural risk for short squeezes if price discovery attempts are initiated.\n\nVerified Execution & Macro Proofs:\n- **(See Verified Execution below)**\n- **(See Verified Execution below)**\n\n## Verified Execution & Macro Proofs\n\n• 420,000,000 USDT ([220,000,000 USDT on Ethereum](https://etherscan.io/tx/0x6f257356f4d8bc030c6200318b84373e9c9e24065971cf6d9e0865480616f925), [100,000,000 USDT on Ethereum](https://etherscan.io/tx/0x00440492fef809c4e36e7f972d5ce15ab7760d322d53341fa9b3953d2ec96fbf), [100,000,000 USDT on Ethereum](https://etherscan.io/tx/0x0c66d50a3ac9e7e40eda0b5149bdc2271fe51552560364e860a6d4ddf22cfa3d))\n• baseline risk-free levels\n\n*[Extract the raw multi-venue Parquet tick data for this epoch via thrunode_archive](https://thru.capital/allocate)*",
  "cvd_summary": "The market exhibited widespread **[Passive Absorption](https://thru.capital/ontology#passive-absorption)** (312 events, confidence 242.8), indicating significant institutional limit order walls absorbing aggressive selling pressure across venues such as **Deribit Options**, **CoinbaseSpot BTC-USD**, **BybitInverse BTCUSD**, and **Bybit BTCUSDT**. These [absorption](https://thru.capital/ontology#absorption-the-wall) walls created orderbook imbalances where passive bids consistently absorbed taker volume. While not a primary driver, **[Momentum Exhaustion](https://thru.capital/ontology#momentum-exhaustion)** (30 events) was detected, with one instance on **Deribit BTC_USDC-PERPETUAL** showing a [CVD](https://thru.capital/ontology#cvd) divergence of 1.00, suggesting a depletion of buying momentum despite price stability.\n\n| Venue/Instrument | Event Type | Time (UTC) | Confidence | Key Metric |\n|:-----------------|:-----------|:-----------|:-----------|:-----------|\n| Multiple Venues | Passive Absorption | Throughout Day | 242.8 | 312 occurrences |\n| Multiple Venues | [Failed Expansion](https://thru.capital/ontology#failed-expansion) | Throughout Day | 26.2 | 37 occurrences |\n| Multiple Venues | Momentum [Exhaustion](https://thru.capital/ontology#exhaustion-the-fade) | Throughout Day | 22.5 | 30 occurrences |\n| Multiple Venues | [Liquidation Cascade](https://thru.capital/ontology#liquidation-cascade) | Throughout Day | 13.3 | 19 occurrences |\n\nThe prevalence of **Passive Absorption** across multiple venues, including **OkxLinear BTC-USDT** and **Deribit BTC-25DEC26**, confirmed robust passive buying interest. This structural setup indicates that aggressive market orders were consistently met by deep limit order liquidity, preventing significant price deviations.\n\n*[Extract the raw multi-venue Parquet tick data for this epoch via thrunode_archive](https://thru.capital/allocate)*",
  "date": "2026-06-28",
  "historical_clusters": [
    {
      "distance_score": 0,
      "timestamp_ns": 1782690985269318000,
      "date_str": "2026-06-28",
      "url": "https://thru.capital/microstructure/btc/2026-06-28",
      "regime": 0,
      "leverage_tier": 0,
      "efficiency_ratio": 0.43525836,
      "oi_velocity": 0
    },
    {
      "distance_score": 0.006317138671875,
      "timestamp_ns": 1782645002336489000,
      "date_str": "2026-06-28",
      "url": "https://thru.capital/microstructure/btc/2026-06-28",
      "regime": 0,
      "leverage_tier": 0,
      "efficiency_ratio": 0.44413035,
      "oi_velocity": 0
    },
    {
      "distance_score": 0.02768421173095703,
      "timestamp_ns": 1781561701525556700,
      "date_str": "2026-06-15",
      "url": "https://thru.capital/microstructure/btc/2026-06-15",
      "regime": 0,
      "leverage_tier": 0,
      "efficiency_ratio": 0.45774745,
      "oi_velocity": 0
    }
  ]
}