{
  "title": "Passive Absorption in BTC — June 27, 2026",
  "waterfall_summary": "The market maintained a dominant **[Absorption]** regime, accounting for 63457 state blocks across all instruments and venues, indicating persistent passive buying activity. Despite this, 38 instances of [Failed Expansion](https://thru.capital/ontology#failed-expansion) (27.6 confidence) were observed, notably on **[OkxInverse BTC-USD]**, suggesting limited upside momentum and a structural resistance to price discovery. [Compression](https://thru.capital/ontology#compression-coiling) regimes accounted for 7969 state blocks, indicating periods of liquidity engineering, while [Expansion](https://thru.capital/ontology#expansion-discovery) regimes were minimal with 170 state blocks. Volatility metrics from **[CME]** indicated a value of 45.2 as of 2026-06-24. A total of 420,000,000 USDT was minted across three transactions on **[Ethereum]** between June 18-21, 2026, indicating significant treasury inflows.Verified Execution & Macro Proofs:- **(See Verified Execution below)**- **(See Verified Execution below)**\n\n## Verified Execution & Macro Proofs\n\n• 420,000,000 USDT ([220,000,000 USDT on Ethereum](https://etherscan.io/tx/0x6f257356f4d8bc030c6200318b84373e9c9e24065971cf6d9e0865480616f925), [100,000,000 USDT on Ethereum](https://etherscan.io/tx/0x00440492fef809c4e36e7f972d5ce15ab7760d322d53341fa9b3953d2ec96fbf), [100,000,000 USDT on Ethereum](https://etherscan.io/tx/0x0c66d50a3ac9e7e40eda0b5149bdc2271fe51552560364e860a6d4ddf22cfa3d))\n• [45.20 bps (Source Date: 2026-06-24)](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/cryptocurrencies/bitcoin/bitcoin.html)",
  "radar_summary": "Throughout the day, significant funding divergences indicated crowdedness and potential squeeze risks. **[BybitInverse BTCUSD]** exhibited a severe negative funding Z-score of -4.58, suggesting concentrated short-side positioning and vulnerability to a short squeeze. Concurrently, **[BinanceCoinM BTCUSD_PERP]** recorded negative funding Z-scores of -2.08 and -1.86, further highlighting bearish crowdedness on specific perpetual contracts. While overall leverage remained predominantly **[Clean]**, **[Bybit BTCUSDT]** showed an **[Elevated leverage]** state with negative OI velocity (-7.76 BPS), amplifying localized deleveraging risk. **[Deribit BTC_USDC-PERPETUAL]** also registered **[Elevated leverage]** alongside [Momentum Exhaustion](https://thru.capital/ontology#momentum-exhaustion) ([OI velocity](https://thru.capital/ontology#derivatives-reflexivity): -52.09 BPS), indicating depleted directional conviction.Verified Execution & Macro Proofs:- **(See Verified Execution below)**- **(See Verified Execution below)**\n\n## Verified Execution & Macro Proofs\n\n• 420,000,000 USDT ([220,000,000 USDT on Ethereum](https://etherscan.io/tx/0x6f257356f4d8bc030c6200318b84373e9c9e24065971cf6d9e0865480616f925), [100,000,000 USDT on Ethereum](https://etherscan.io/tx/0x00440492fef809c4e36e7f972d5ce15ab7760d322d53341fa9b3953d2ec96fbf), [100,000,000 USDT on Ethereum](https://etherscan.io/tx/0x0c66d50a3ac9e7e40eda0b5149bdc2271fe51552560364e860a6d4ddf22cfa3d))\n• baseline risk-free levels",
  "cvd_summary": "| Event Type | Count | Confidence |\n|:-----------|:------|:-----------|\n| [Passive Absorption](https://thru.capital/ontology#passive-absorption) | 348 | 272.6 |\n| [Failed Expansion](https://thru.capital/ontology#failed-expansion) | 38 | 27.6 |\n| [Momentum Exhaustion](https://thru.capital/ontology#momentum-exhaustion) | 35 | 26.25 |\n| [Liquidation Cascade](https://thru.capital/ontology#liquidation-cascade) | 19 | 13.3 |\nPassive liquidity walls were the dominant microstructure event, with 348 instances of Passive [Absorption](https://thru.capital/ontology#absorption-the-wall) detected across venues, exhibiting an aggregate confidence of 272.6. This indicates significant passive bid-side liquidity absorbing aggressive selling pressure, exemplified on **[Deribit BTC-26MAR27]** (efficiency_ratio: 0.00) and **[CoinbaseSpot BTC-USD]** (efficiency_ratio: 0.1052). Concurrently, 35 instances of Momentum Exhaustion (26.25 confidence) were observed, notably on **[Deribit BTC-PERPETUAL]** (OI velocity: -11.79 BPS) and **[Deribit BTC_USDC-PERPETUAL]** (OI velocity: -52.09 BPS), suggesting depletion of directional conviction within these absorption blocks. Minor [Liquidation Cascades](https://thru.capital/ontology#liquidation-cascade) (19 instances, 13.3 confidence) were also present, indicating localized deleveraging events.\n\n*[Extract the raw multi-venue Parquet tick data for this epoch via thrunode_archive](https://thru.capital/allocate)*",
  "date": "2026-06-27",
  "historical_clusters": [
    {
      "distance_score": 0.00000762939453125,
      "timestamp_ns": 1782604583571376600,
      "date_str": "2026-06-27",
      "url": "https://thru.capital/microstructure/btc/2026-06-27",
      "regime": 3,
      "leverage_tier": 0,
      "efficiency_ratio": 0.14381537,
      "oi_velocity": 0
    },
    {
      "distance_score": 0.175872802734375,
      "timestamp_ns": 1781409369720699000,
      "date_str": "2026-06-14",
      "url": "https://thru.capital/microstructure/btc/2026-06-14",
      "regime": 3,
      "leverage_tier": 0,
      "efficiency_ratio": 0.14553296,
      "oi_velocity": 0
    },
    {
      "distance_score": 0.219512939453125,
      "timestamp_ns": 1782071701525162800,
      "date_str": "2026-06-21",
      "url": "https://thru.capital/microstructure/btc/2026-06-21",
      "regime": 3,
      "leverage_tier": 0,
      "efficiency_ratio": 0.0659194,
      "oi_velocity": 0
    }
  ]
}